Neither a bull nor a bear be

Bull markets don’t start at fair value.  They start when a majority of stocks are selling at a significant discount to fair value.  There have been time periods in the last 70 years {more…}

The Road to Berlin

What is a risk-free rate debt instrument denominated in euros?  Financial market participants are beginning to ask this question in earnest and are not happy with the answer:  there isn’t one.  Only the {more…}

Haircuts and Headlines

Every day seems to bring about a new story on how the global economy is being undermined by the instability of a financial system that is more connected than any politician or regulator {more…}

Greece Fire

Europe has reclaimed the spotlight in what seems to be a never ending experiment to try and extinguish a grease fire (pun intended) with a garden hose.  Of course, using water to extinguish {more…}

Lessons from Japan

The twin asset class bubbles in the United States of technology stocks (1996 – 2000) and residential real estate (1996 – 2006) continue to depress economic growth.  Asset class bubbles are a semi-rare {more…}

Deficit Attention Disorder

Congress raised the borrowing limit and managed to avert the worst case scenario for the economy.  Now what? It is highly likely that our elected representatives in Washington will prolong the sub-par growth {more…}

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure

Benjamin Franklin’s famous saying was in reference to homeowners in 1700′s Philadelphia who often suffered irreversible economic loss due to fire damage.  To provide a measure of protection, Franklin and his fellow firefighters {more…}

You can’t get there from here

When viewed from a historical perspective, today’s stock market is anything but cheap.  At almost one standard deviation above the long-term average for normalized valuations, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to any number {more…}

Trust, but verify

This was one of Ronald Reagan’s signature phrases.  He used it so often during the 1980’s that Gorbachev remarked at the signing of the I.N.F. Treaty in 1987, “You repeat that at every {more…}

False Profits

Since March of 2009, cap size has been the biggest determinant of performance in the U.S. public equity market with small cap stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index (large cap stocks) by 30% {more…}